Scenario-based robustness assessment of building system life cycle performance

The construction of low greenhouse gas emission buildings requires the consideration both embodied and operational emissions. While emissions mainly occur in phase, during entire building life are influenced by future developments such as climate change, electricity grid decarbonization, user behavior. Suitable methods which allow considering these uncertainties already design stage robustness assessments. This study proposes a scenario-based assessment method to investigate effects on buildings’ We scenario generation, energy simulation, calculation emissions, statistical evaluation results according different metrics. Two simulation models with time scales compared total 12 test cases. Finally, is demonstrated case study, where 40 configurations against 1260 scenarios investigated using five metrics: minimax regret, Spread, Maximin, Laplace’s Principle insufficient reasoning, Starr’s Domain criterion. For multi-family house located Zurich, Switzerland, we demonstrate how developments, e.g., change influence building's performance. example, slow heat pump systems perform most robustly other analyzed heating cooling systems. Depending chosen metrics, it further possible rate solutions optimistic, pessimistic, or optimal preference, making proposed framework valuable tool for decision-makers. In transition, conclude that analyzing performance without future-oriented data not suitable, encourage designers assess impact phase instead purely norm-based standard values, entirely based from past.